turtledovefandomcom-20200216-history
User blog:JCC the Alternate Historian/States the Republicans Won in Joe Steele (Guesses and Speculation)
The Discussion In Joe Steele (both the novel and the short story), we obviously already know that Joe Steele would win his six presidential elections by landslide margins. However, we don't always know how many electoral votes and states his rivals got in the elections. So far, going by both the short story and novel, we already know some of the results for the loosing candidates in the six elections. They are: * In 1932, Herbert Hoover wins 59 electoral votes from the six states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Vermont. The short story mentions the states he won but the novel doesn't go into much detail on that. However, we should assume that Hoover still won the same states as he did in both the short story and OTL. * In 1936, Alf Landon wins eight electoral votes from the two states of Maine and Vermont. Same electoral results as OTL. * Neither Wendell Willkie in 1940 or Thomas Dewey in 1944 have any states the mentioned carrying (assuming they won any state, that is). * In 1948, Harold Stassen is mentioned of carrying Delaware, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, Vermont and several other states that contained resettled wreckers. * In 1952, Robert Taft is mentioned of carrying Ohio and a few other unmentioned states. Since we already know what states Hoover and Landon carried in 1932 and 1936, we just have speculate what states Willkie and Dewey could have carried in 1940 and 1944 while also finding out what other states Stassen and Taft won in 1948 and 1952. Starting in 1940, it already mentions that Steele carried higher percentages of the popular vote than he had four years earlier, which seems rather inconsistent, considering how vigorously Willkie had actually campaigned. IMO, at best in this timeline, I could see Willkie carrying only Maine, Vermont, and his home state of Indiana with 22 electoral votes. A little better than Landon in the electoral college, but not much. For 1944, I doubt Dewey would be able to win New York despite it being his home state unless he campaigned there hard. In the end at best, I assume the Dewey-Bricker ticket will carry Maine, Vermont, Nebraska, the Dakotas, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming. Still, I'm probably being a little generous with Dewy, considering he had very little to go campaign on and Steele's apparatus was difficult to contend with. In 1948, Harold Stassen as I said above carried Delaware, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, and Vermont with 23 electoral votes confirmed. However, he was also mentioned on carrying several other unmentioned states that contained resettled wreckers. The states that mention have resettled wreckers include Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Wyoming. Assuming he wins those five states, he's now up to 40 electoral votes. Also take in the fact that Stassen was the governor of Minnesota, he could also win that state, which will bring his electoral votes up to 51. In addition to that, I've decided to have South Dakota go to Stassen as well since both it and North Dakota usually vote or the same candidate in presidential elections. With that, Stassen is now up to 55 electoral votes. However, in my blog on GOP VP candidates in Joe Steele, TR and I decided that Arthur Vandenberg would be Stassen's running mate. With Vandenberg being from Michigan, I decided to award the GOP with that states 19 electoral vote, bringing the Stassen-Vandenberg ticket up to 78 electoral votes from 13 states. Finally, in 1952, Robert Taft is mentioned of carrying his home state of Ohio and a few other unmentioned states. However take into the fact that the wrecker states will also likely vote against Steele again, Taft will take those five state Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Wyoming. In addition to that, he'll likely also pick up Maine, New Hampshire, South Dakota, and Vermont due to voting patterns. While TR and I discussed on my GOP VP candidates in Joe Steele Blog about Earl Warren being Taft's running mate, I doubt Warren will help the GOP win California. With that, the Taft-Warren ticket wins 62 electoral votes from ten states. In the end, here are the results of the electoral votes: * Hoover-Curtis 1932: 59 electoral votes from six states. * Landon-Knox 1936: 8 electoral votes from two states. * Willkie-McNary 1940: 22 electoral votes from three states. * Dewey-Bricker 1944: 39 electoral votes from nine states. * Stassen-Vandenberg 1948: 78 electoral votes from thirteen states. * Taft-Warren 1952: 62 electoral votes from ten states. Notes Ironically, Maine and Vermont will vote against Steele in all six of his presidential runs, basically the same on how those were the only two states Franklin D. Roosevelt failed to carry in his four presidential runs. This is likely because Maine was a mostly Republican leaning state while Vermont (unless you were living in Chittenden, Franklin, or Grand Isle Counties (or Essex County in 1940 and '44)) despised the Democrats! So what do you guys think? Any questions or thoughts? What states do you think the 1940-52 candidates carried in those elections? --JCC the Alternate Historian (talk) 14:15, June 16, 2018 (UTC) Category:Blog posts